Jun 12, 2025
|
June Gu

Strategic Shifts in the European Defense Landscape

A Changing Geopolitical Order

As 2025 unfolds, the global defense industry is navigating a period of profound transformation. The geopolitical landscape has undergone a significant shift over the past decades, influenced by rising populist policies and increasing economic fragmentation. These changes have disrupted long-standing alliances and altered the dynamics of global power, leaving many nations to rethink their defense priorities.

One of the most significant outcomes of this shifting order is the heightened focus on digital sovereignty. Advanced technologies have become central to national strategies, and the control over key digital infrastructure and innovation pipelines is now viewed as critical to both security and competitiveness. Nations are under pressure to reduce reliance on foreign technologies while building up domestic capabilities in areas like cybersecurity, AI, and autonomous systems.

In parallel, the fragmentation of the global economy, spurred by geopolitical tensions, is prompting a reorganization of defense production and supply chains. Countries are increasingly seeking to re-shore or near-shore manufacturing and become less dependent on traditional partners. This trend adds new layers of complexity for multinational defense companies operating across different regulatory and political environments.

Toward a More Cohesive European Defense Policy

Within this context, the European Union has taken a noteworthy step by appointing its first Defence Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, former Prime Minister of Lithuania. His appointment signals an intention to drive greater integration and coordination in European defense policy. While this move is partly a response to the war in Ukraine, it also reflects a broader shift toward increased political involvement in the defense sector.

EU initiatives like the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) are examples of how the Union is encouraging member states to work more closely on defense capabilities. Efforts are underway to harmonize procurement practices, standardize equipment, and reduce the bloc's dependency on external suppliers — particularly from the U.S. The long-term goal is clear: to strengthen Europe's strategic autonomy and improve its capacity to respond rapidly and effectively to emerging threats.

Beyond joint exercises and intelligence sharing, the push for a unified military-industrial complex in Europe focuses on deeper integration at both industrial and technological levels. This strategy aligns with the broader objective of building a more resilient and self-sufficient European defense infrastructure.

Challenges and Opportunities Ahead

While the strategic ambitions are clear, execution remains a major challenge. A key issue is talent — or rather, the lack of it. As defense systems become more reliant on emerging technologies, the sector is facing acute shortages of skilled professionals, especially in fields like software development, data science, and engineering.

The demographic reality is also catching up with the defense industry. An aging workforce and a lack of strong succession planning are limiting the ability of many companies to adapt to technological change. Moreover, slow security clearance processes and rigid employment regulations often hamper the industry's ability to scale up production quickly — a growing requirement as governments demand faster turnarounds on defense capabilities. Younger professionals, particularly in tech, often gravitate toward the private sector, which offers higher salaries, modern work environments, and more flexibility. Defense companies are now being forced to rethink not only their work culture but also their broader approach to talent development and retention.

In this complex landscape, the interplay of geopolitics, technology, and workforce readiness will define the evolution of defense in Europe and beyond. The ability of nations and companies to anticipate and adapt to these dynamics will determine their strategic resilience in the years ahead.

Strategic Shifts in the European Defense Landscape
June Gu
Head of Global Research